Night-time temperatures across November to January are very likely to be warmer than average across much of Australia. She said North Queensland could expect a warmer than average spring. Historical accuracy maps for all outlook start dates are available above. On the historical accuracy maps, the higher the percent consistent value for an area (i.e. Drosdowsky, W., and M.C.
This is the final NRO outlook for 2020–21. Wea. For example, a 75% (or three in four) chance of an early rainfall onset still means there is a one in four chance that the rainfall onset will be late. Remaining parts of Australia have roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average November apart from west coast Tasmania, where drier than average conditions are more likely. Parts of coastal Queensland and the western Top End typically accumulate 50 mm by late October or early November, spreading further south and inland over following weeks.
The maps are calculated for all years between 1960 and 2012. 'Totals', 'Onset date' and 'Early or late' end-of-season maps are available from each. A weighted analysis scheme is applied to station data, providing a broad spatial gridded coverage throughout Australia. November rainfall is likely (greater than 65% in many areas) to be above average across most of the eastern two-thirds of the Australian mainland. Wheeler, 2014: Predicting the onset of the north Australian wet season with the POAMA dynamical prediction system. The average maximum temperature for November to January is likely to be higher than the long-term average for Tasmania, Victoria, northern and western WA, much of the NT and northern SA, and along the coast and towards the southwest of Queensland. Average to slightly more than average cyclones likely for Australia, Early rainfall onset likely for most of northern Australia. While the outlooks indicate wetter than average conditions, southern parts of Australia are entering into their drier season, so rainfall is not likely to be sufficient to relieve long-term rainfall deficits. The fortnight 2-15 November is likely to be wetter than average for northwest SA, southwest NT and the WA interior (greater than 75% chance), as well as parts of the Queensland and NSW coasts (greater than 60% chance). This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. Daytime temperatures across November to January are likely to be warmer than average across parts of south-east, central, and western Australia, as well as along the northern coastline. "Cooktown, the airport site only goes back 20 years but when you take in a couple of sites, 34.6 was actually their hottest August temperature for over 146 years.". "For October to December it's a similar story — maybe slightly less of a signal there, but still above a 70 per cent chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature across most of the tropical north.". Average northern rainfall onset dates for El Niño years, La Niña years, neutral and all years (1960–2012), Percent Consistent Rate (or forecast accuracy) 1990–2012.
Model outlooks suggest the La Niña is likely to persist until at least the end of the 2020-21 summer. La Niña is underway in the tropical Pacific. Check SportsTG for wet weather updates for NPL Men’s, NPL Women’s, FQPL and Junior NPL fixtures here. "So I guess it's something we should maybe expect to happen more and more often, which is not particularly good news.".
How rainy is the wet season really? Forecasting, 29, 150-161, See also: Northern rainfall onset mean onset date, Unless otherwise noted, all maps, graphs and diagrams in this page are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence, This page was created at 17:37 on Friday 30 October 2020 (UTC), © Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533 532) | CRICOS Provider 02015K | Disclaimer | Privacy | Accessibility, reports and summaries that describe rainfall history. The maps are updated each Tuesday afternoon, between 1 October and 31 May. "Mareeba hit 34 degrees, which is actually the warmest August day in over 68 years," he said.
For the fortnight 26 October to 8 November, mean daytime temperatures are likely to be above the long-term average for north-eastern WA, around the coast of the NT and Queensland, and in western Tasmania. Rainfall maps for the following onset season become available in October. The mercury hit 30.7C in Yeppoon on Wednesday, making it the hottest August day since 2000, when it reached 30.1C. Archive page dates are tied to rainfall onset outlook dates, so the latest year of archives displays the end-of-season maps from the previous season. But Ms Wong said how the weather played out would depend on other climate drivers. Archive of National rainfall maps for the northern wet season, Previous Northern Rainfall Onset outlooks, Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence, Decadal & multi-decadal
Areas of the maps that are not green/coloured do not have a good record of accuracy. It must always be remembered that the outlooks provide probability-based information. These rainfall maps are updated weekly until the end of May each season.
It is considered to be approximately the amount of rainfall required to stimulate plant growth. The rainfall is accumulated each day, starting from 1 September.
The rainfall accumlates until the end of May of the following year. Light grey shading means that the usual rainfall onset date occurs later than the currently issued forecast period. The chance of above median maximum temperature for September to November 2020. Model accuracy (also known as model confidence or model skill) is a measure of how well the model has performed in the past for that time of the year. Meteorologist Felim Hanniffy said it was due to a ridge of high pressure along the east coast, and northerly winds preceding a trough approaching from the west. when there is no El Niño or La Niña). The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is expected to be neutral over the next fortnight but generally positive values of SAM are expected over the 2020-21 summer. November to January rainfall is likely to be above average across much of Australia, except west coast Tasmania. They give a percentage chance of whether it will be early or late.
the greener/darker the map), the higher the accuracy has been in that area in the past, and thus more confidence can be placed in the outlook for those regions. La Niña tends to favour positive SAM during the spring to summer months, which typically enhances the wet signal of La Niña in parts of eastern Australia, although western Tasmania is often drier.
Mareeba and Cooktown in Far North Queensland and Yeppoon in Central Queensland had their hottest August day in decades this week. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.4 °C since 1910, while southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades. On average, nights during this period are likely to be warmer than the long-term average across all of Australia. The average minimum temperature is very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be higher than the long-term average across Australia during November to January. View normal onset dates here. From September 1, please check the observations tab for daily updates of rainfall accumulation and onset status. Areas with totals below the onset threshold of 50 mm are not shown. The 'Early or late?' For immediate updates, please contact the home club or your team manager to find out if matches are still being played today. This is defined as the date when at least 50 mm of rainfall has accumulated after 1 September. The 'Onset date' map shows the dates where the 50 mm onset threshold has occurred. The climate of Queensland is sub-tropical humid climate with two seasons, a rainy and humid season in summer (October to May) and a relatively dry season between June and October. One way the Bureau measures the accuracy of its climate models is by comparing how often the real outcomes matched the forecast (as a percentage).
The increased likelihood of La Niña in 2020 is influencing this outlook. In areas not coloured green, some caution should be taken when using the forecast, notably at times when there is not a strong driver of our climate present (e.g. Predicting the onset of the north Australian wet season with the POAMA dynamical prediction system. The Bureau's northern rainfall onset outlook indicates the likelihood of the rainfall onset beginning earlier or later than the average onset date (see. There are roughly equal chances of an early or late rainfall onset for the western half of Western Australia, and far northern parts of Australia. "The La Nina generally tends to be an earlier onset of the wet season, a wetter wet season, and potentially more cyclones than you would normally get," she said. The rainfall onset as defined here is different from the. The southern inland regions of the Northern Territory and Queensland, as well as western parts of Western Australia usually have the latest northern rainfall onset, around mid-January. The daily grids area available through the.
The chance of an early rainfall onset for northern Australia for the 2020–21 wet season is higher than average over most of northern Australia. Cooktown’s weather records only date back 146 years to 1874. Recent observations show a slight strengthening in the pattern. The northern rainfall onset occurs when enough rainfall has fallen to stimulate plant growth after the tropical dry season. For further information, see this research paper: From June until the start of the next northern rainfall onset season, the final end of season maps remain available for review. The temperatures for the two sites were about eight degrees Celsius above average for the time of year. Station data used are from the Bureau of Meteorology's rainfall network.
This rainfall will also not necessarily lower the risk of days with elevated fire danger. No more records were expected to fall in the coming days, but conditions were expected to remain warmer than average, with elevated fire danger across most of the state. "I'm not too sure what happens beyond then, but it seems to be in line with longer-term projections of continuing to warm.".
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