As the fastest growing flexibility option, battery storage capacity rises 40-fold by 2040, due to its falling costs, short construction periods, widespread availability and scalability. Aside from renewables, which are largely unaffected by electricity demand, most other sources of electricity declined in the first quarter of 2020.
In our projection for 2020, global electricity demand would fall 5%, with 10% reductions in some regions. Contribution of BRICS to the global increase in power consumption between 2010 and 2019. Renewables have claimed a greater share of electricity generation as a result of lockdown measures and depressed electricity demand.
Nuclear power generation fell by 3% in response to lower demand and because fewer reactors were operational in some regions. In the USA, a lower demand from the industrial and residential sectors contributed to cut electricity consumption by 2.2%. Keep up to date with our latest news and analysis by subscribing to our regular newsletter. In advanced economies, future growth linked to increasing digitalisation and electrification is largely offset by energy efficiency improvements. Low-carbon energy sources would far outstrip coal-fired generation globally, extending the lead established in 2019. Demand in the construction and manufacturing industry (which made up 68% of total demand in 2019) decreased by 12%. Demand fell for all other sources of electricity, including coal, gas and nuclear power. Coal-fired output remains broadly flat, though its share declines significantly, while natural gas and nuclear power maintain their shares. Electricity is at the heart of modern economies and it is providing a rising share of energy services. Across the most affected economies of the European Union, average weekday electricity demand for services declined considerably as March progressed. In China, industry accounted for more than 60% of electricity consumption in 2019, compared with 10% for services, part of the reason that it would experience a smaller impact on overall electricity demand. The need for flexibility in power systems grows even faster than electricity demand, due to rising shares of variable renewables and growing demand for cooling and electric vehicles. In Italy, the hardest-hit country in Europe, declines reached 75% relative to the same period in 2019. Global coal-fired capacity plateaus, with the project pipeline of 710 GW, mainly in Asia, just exceeding coal plant retirements, mainly in advanced economies. Renewables contribute three-quarters of electricity supply growth to 2040, underpinned by policy support in nearly 170 countries and falling costs. Renewables-based generation increased by 3%, mainly because of a double-digit percentage increase for wind power and a jump in solar photovoltaic (PV) output from new projects over the past year.
Decarbonised electricity, in addition, could provide a platform for reducing CO2 emissions in other sectors through electricity-based fuels such as hydrogen or synthetic liquid fuels. Providing electricity access for the first time to 530 million people accounts for just 2% of demand growth. Thank you for subscribing.
Cross-zonal capacity increased by 3% in 2019 compared to 2018 due to border-specific improvements (Poland-Czech Republic/Germany/Slovakia, Austrian borders, Greece-Italy, Bulgaria-Romania and Germany-Denmark). It was stable in India (slowdown in industrial consumption) and in Russia (milder temperatures). Gas-fired generation would also be hit hard, sinking by about 7% for the year, the largest declines on record. You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link at the bottom of any IEA newsletter.
Reductions were pronounced in both February and March in China, where significant lockdowns spanned both months. Developing economies contribute nearly 90% of global electricity demand growth to 2040 in the Stated Policies Scenario, but demand per person in these economies remains 60% lower than in advanced economies.
Nuclear power would rebound to nearly match 2019 output over the course of 2020. Many factories have been able to continue operations by applying precautionary measures to protect workers. Electricity demand fell by 2.5% to 4.5% in Europe, Japan, Korea and the United States in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019, not only because of Covid‑19 but also because weather in January and February was milder than in 2019. In the European Union, the share of renewables in electricity generation picked up in weeks following the onset of lockdown measures, in part due to lower demand, driving coal and gas out of the power mix. Demand reductions have lifted the share of renewables in electricity supply, as their output is largely unaffected by demand.
Gas-fired capacity grows in most markets for reliability purposes and battery storage skyrockets. A faster, V-shaped economic recovery would cut the impact on electricity demand by half, leading to smaller year-on-year falls for coal, gas and nuclear power. Find out about the world, a region, or a country, Find out about a fuel, a technology or a sector, Explore the full range of IEA's unique analysis, Search, download and purchase energy data and statistics, Search, filter and find energy-related policies, Shaping a secure and sustainable energy future, Clean Energy Ministerial Hydrogen Initiative, Clean Energy Transitions in Emerging Economies, Global Commission for Urgent Action on Energy Efficiency. Around 2030, final electricity demand will exceed final oil demand.
The low-carbon share of generation is expected to surge to 40% in 2020, the highest level on record, partly because total generation would fall by almost 5%. Increases in residential demand were far outweighed by reductions in commercial and industrial operations.
In the last week of March and first week of April, residential demand during the week was up to 40% higher across certain European economies than in the same weeks in 2019. A faster recovery would reduce electricity demand by 2% in 2020, as all areas of economic activity resume. Accelerated efforts on renewables, nuclear power and carbon capture technologies rapidly decarbonise electricity supply, compensating for the sharp decline of coal-fired power generation and reducing power sector CO2 emissions by three-quarters by 2040.
Electricity demand growth is set to be particularly strong in developing economies.
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