With these additions, the default tally in Europe reached 10, exceeding eight, where it was at this point in 2020. Fiscal and monetary supports, which have helped to keep defaults relatively muted, considering the circumstances, are expected to eventually subside. In 2021, CEE economies are set to recover by 4.1% on average, supported by easing pandemic-related restrictions at home and abroad, and the EU's ample transfers and accommodative policies. 'BBB' Pulse: After A Turbulent Year, Rising Stars Once Again Outnumber Fallen Angels, May 5, 2021, Vincent R Conti, Singapore, + 65 6216 1188, vincent.conti@spglobal.com, 25. We are updating our COVID-19 sector recovery expectations, with those views beginning to stabilize. Moving to the external picture, for a median EM economy, the average current account balance over 2020-2024 will be roughly the same as in 2019. The diversified telecom services category increased by the widest margin across the most widely held Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) industry categories, which is perhaps unsurprising given how COVID-19 has dramatically increased remote work and family interactions. Excluding the U.S., we project he total commercial borrowing by sovereigns in the Americas to decline moderately in absolute terms and as a share of regional GDP in 2021. Borrowing Rises, Inside Global ABCP: Economic Recovery To Underpin Modest Issuance And Stable Ratings, Mexican Equipment ABS Remains Resilient One Year Into The Pandemic, Loan Deferrals In U.S. Auto Loan ABS Reach Their Lowest Levels Since COVID-19 Began; Deeper Dive Into Charge-Offs On Extended Loans, U.S. Conduit CMBS Update Q1 2021: Signs of Improvement, U.S. Auto And Equipment ABS New Issuance Spreads Reach Pre-Pandemic Lows, Signaling Lower Risk Premium, SF Credit Brief: CLO Insights 2021 BSL Index: How Collateral Pools Changed One Year After COVID-19 Lockdowns Began, Credit FAQ Examines How The Chip Shortage Will Shake Up China's New Energy Vehicle Market, Global Chip Shortage Engulfs A Growing List Of Tech Players, Stronger For Longer: Good Demand, Capacity Constraints, And Low Inventory To Bolster U.S. Tech Into 2022, Semiconductor Supply Shortage And U.S. Policy Response Mark A Renaissance For Domestic Manufacturing And Equipment Investments, BBB' Pulse: After A Turbulent Year, Rising Stars Once Again Outnumber Fallen Angels. 2021 might be a tale of two economies. On March 5, 2021, we upgraded United Rentals to 'BB+' and Herc to 'BB-' on their respective resilience during the pandemic. Regional inflation held steady at November’s 6.1% in December, as higher increases in consumer prices in Brazil, Chile and Colombia offset somewhat softer price pressures in Mexico, Peru and Uruguay. Post full vaccination, once normal activity resumes, the risks to our forecast are skewed to the upside as Canadians could start substantially spending their extra savings, leading to a more robust and durable recovery. Property In Transition: Remote Working Not Lights Out For Asia-Pacific Office Players, April 7, 2021, Esther Liu, Hong Kong + 852 2533 3556, esther.liu@spglobal.com, 104. S&P Global Ratings believes weak passenger traffic could drive strategic changes to boost profitability, including a greater focus on leverage, cutting costs, and postponing capital investments. Ancient forecasting. European Economic Snapshots : Unlike The Rest Of Europe, The U.K. Is Looking Beyond COVID-19, Energy Transition In Asia -Pacific: A Marathon, Not a Sprint, Infrastructure: Ten Roads, Ten Different Stories, Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe. Nominal GDP growth rose as upstream price pressures picked up. Reinsurance cover materially protected primary insurers. Hotel revenues will not return to 2019 levels until 2023 at the earliest, and the ratings bias in the subsector is overwhelmingly negative. We downgraded more than 40% of the automotive, media, leisure, and lodging companies we rate. Most EMs continue struggling to contain the pandemic, and with few exceptions, vaccine rollouts have been slow. Those CAT events occurred in three different regions of South Korea: the west coast, Jeju Island, and the eastern mountain areas. Twitter 4-min read. We believe the managed pub model will fare better in the recovery phase, although operating performance will vary, with substantial earnings volatility across regions, operators, and formats. Another key reason is that the U.K. Office for National Statistics measures public sector output differently from national statistics institutes elsewhere. Capacity Additions: Renewables will continue to increase their share rising to over 40% of generation mix by 2040. But a near-term debt crisis is unlikely given the continuing recovery of the global economy. Ability to use rainy-day reserves remains a crucial tool for budgetary management, especially for states with economic recovery that lags that of the nation. Can European Retail Property Owners' Belt-Tightening Save Ratings From COVID And E-Commerce Headwinds? We expect GDP growth will rebound to 3.6% in 2021 after a sharp recession estimated at 7.0% in 2020. Central America. Google+, Facebook S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. 0. South America; Worldwide; Analysis. The improved outlook comes as the pace of COVID-19 vaccinations in the U.S. has picked up and signs point to a faster and sustained reopening of the economy. Transportation: Although air travel should pick up quickly in the U.S. and China, since 75%-80% is domestic, there is significant uncertainty in Europe because widespread vaccination may only be achieved near the end of the third quarter and a high share of air traffic is on international routes. Project Finance Forges Ahead After Year Of Disruption, April 20, 2021, Ben L Macdonald, CFA, Centennial, + 1 (303) 721 4723, ben.macdonald@spglobal.com, 80. We believe that the pace of further downgrades will continue to decelerate over the next 12 months given the high number of negative actions already taken in the past year, vaccine rollout progression, and improving global economic conditions. Given the acceleration in remote working due to the pandemic, office landlords will face higher vacancy rates and demands for greater environmental quality, and more flexibility in lease terms. CESEE Banks Face COVID Headwinds From A Solid Starting Point, March 17, 2021, Anna Lozmann, Frankfurt, + 49 693 399 9166, anna.lozmann@spglobal.com, 63. Ratings … But we also see this business as a revenue diversifier, which was validated during the pandemic. . Australian University Finances Under COVID-19: Degrees Of Discomfort, April 26, 2021, 96. Central banks now face a delicate and complicated task: how to continue to support the recovery while also developing an exit strategy that doesn't undermine market stability. As the recovery continues, the issuer default rate will likely remain elevated rather than peak and trough. . Domestic and leisure travel is set to revive quicker in coming years, while hubs and business travel will lag behind. S&P Global Ratings Revises Oil And AECO Natural Gas Price Assumptions And Introduces Dutch Title Transfer Facility Assumption, March 8, 2021, Thomas A Watters, New York, (1) 212-438-7818, thomas.watters@spglobal.com, 14. With COVID Cases Rising, South American Aviation Expects Turbulence. To register for the upcoming webcasts, please click here. Slow Economic Recovery Will Burden Latin American Insurers' Performance This Year, March 29, 2021, Alfredo E Calvo, Mexico City, + 52 55 5081 4436, alfredo.calvo@spglobal.com, 87. . Our ratings on CESEE banks currently carry a negative outlook bias, which is in line with the trend across Europe. Canadian Turbulence Forecast. Record debt burden. We use these assumptions about vaccine timing in assessing the economic and credit implications associated with the pandemic (see our research here: www.spglobal.com/ratings). Globally, negative bias hit an all-time high on 40% in March 2020. ESG-related rating actions over the first quarter edged up to 201 (83 in March), of which 126 were downgrades (51 in March). If markets price a policy mistake and U.S. real yields surge higher, risks of a "taper tantrum" rise, with India and Philippines most exposed. Out-Of-Court Restructurings May Lead To Repeat Defaults Among Distressed U.S. And Canadian Corporates, May 11, 2021, 31. Europe Weather The Metcheck 7 Day Forecast takes the best from the GFS weather models and displays it in easy to read maps for the world out to the next 192 hours ahead. by Editorial Team; August 4, 2018; 5 shares 5. Business and more-distant international travel will take longer to recover. Our ratings currently assume a conservative 15%-20% haircut on revenue from leases that are due to be renegotiated and 0%-5% asset devaluations in 2021 and 2022, depending on location. We forecast Egypt and Russia will borrow equivalent to $63 billion and $52 billion. The resurgence of new daily COVID-19 cases at the beginning of 2021 led to every major Latin American economy reimposing lockdown measures. Latin America. Office spot rents and occupancy rates in Hong Kong's Central business district won't trough until 2022, with stress lasting longer in non-core districts. There is $71.4 billion of debt maturing over the next five years across the 97 finance companies and asset managers we publicly rate in North America. We expect a strong macroeconomic recovery, shortages of critical components, and dwindling inventory to result in tight supply chain conditions into 2022, supporting favorable technology industry conditions even as the sector adds capacity. Central America MSLP and Previous 12 Hour Precipitation Rate . India's escalating second wave of COVID-19 infections is serious. Potential Downgrades Ebb To Pre-Pandemic Levels, April 15, 2021, Sarah Limbach, Paris, + 33 14 420 6708, Sarah.Limbach@spglobal.com, 27. Globally, about 60% of the confirmed cases have recovered. Further mutations of the virus, setbacks in the vaccine rollout, and unexpected policy missteps constitute the main risks to our baseline. Inflation and repricing risks. . South African Insurers: Sustained Capital Resilience, Amid Grey Clouds, March 16, 2021, Trevor Barsdorf, Johannesburg, + 27 11 214 4852, trevor.barsdorf@spglobal.com, 88. S&P Global Ratings is further raising its assumptions for most metals prices for 2021-2023 as demand rebounds but supplies remain stubbornly tight. The impact on individual auto manufacturers varies substantially. Click on the button below to get started. Further out we see the threat of new variants and the potential for corporate insolvencies that so far have been artificially depressed. Uneven access to funding for refinancing could create a spike in corporate defaults in South and Southeast Asia if it persists beyond the next six months. 1. Credit Conditions Asia-Pacific Q2 2021: Uneven Recovery, March 30, 2021, Eunice Tan, Hong Kong, + 852 2533-3553, eunice.tan@spglobal.com, 2. Credit Conditions Emerging Markets Q2 2021: Brighter Prospects Prone To Setbacks, March 30, 2021, Jose M Perez-Gorozpe, Mexico City, (52) 55-5081-4442, jose.perez-gorozpe@spglobal.com, 3. Credit Conditions Europe Q2 2021: New Horizons, Old Risks, March 30, 2021, Paul Watters, CFA, London, (44) 20-7176-3542, paul.watters@spglobal.com, 4. Nonperforming loans will rise this year, but remain manageable, with risks to asset quality coming mostly from exposure to corporates in cyclical wholesale sectors and the international activities of the top three banks. The high absolute number of infections in India also presents a significant contagion risk to other geographies. Hyperscale data center spending is rebounding with enterprise demand not far behind. The ARP's focus on the pandemic means that many of its provisions are temporary, setting the stage for future policy debate on whether to make the changes permanent. U.S. 'B' and 'CCC' composite spreads tightened further in February to 420 and 661 basis points, respectively, suggesting that market conditions remain favorable. Risks from accelerating secular changes remain for retail, as well as for urban-focused office and rental housing REITs. Complications related to vaccine rollout and new variants of the virus could threaten to undermine recovery prospects. Other industries such as media, specialty retail, entertainment, and oil and gas have all seen declines in CLO exposures over the past year. Regional GDP increased a moderate 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, matching last month’s preliminary reading and marking a slowdown from the fourth quarter’s 2.0% expansion. Health insurers maintained a stable performance in 2020 and we expect the sector's ability to adjust premiums will help offset lower investment results and medical inflation in 2021-2022. RealEarth collects, displays, and animates satellite, weather, earth science, and other GIS data The pandemic has affected in new ways variables such as traffic ramp-up periods, peak and off-peak traffic distribution, and the relationship between economic growth variables and traffic growth, used in the traffic forecasting and made long-term traffic forecasting challenging. In light of these operating headwinds, we performed a sector review in March to reassess the 10 European retail property companies we rate, which resulted in three downgrades. In this baseline forecast, 47 speculative-grade companies would default. We note the differing pace of recovery among European regions, which is partly due to the varying success of vaccination and testing. We expect growth in most EMs to accelerate as the year progresses, vaccinations gather pace, and global demand strengthens. Terry E Chan, CFA, Melbourne (61) 3-9631-2174; Jose M Perez-Gorozpe, Mexico City (52) 55-5081-4442; Paul Watters, CFA, London (44) 20-7176-3542; Joe M Maguire, New York (1) 212-438-7507; Yucheng Zheng, New York + 1 (212) 438 4436; APAC, United States of America, Latin America, Canada, EMEA, APAC. Sovereign Debt 2021: Asia-Pacific Central Governments To Borrow US$4.1 Trillion, March 1, 2021, KimEng Tan, Singapore, + 65 6239 6350, kimeng.tan@spglobal.com, 113. However, we believe insurers' overall strong balance sheets, adequate underwriting practices, conservative investment policies, and sound capital and liquidity will keep aiding them amid tough economic and operating conditions. Online travel companies should see revenue growth returning in the second half of this year. In 650 BCE, the Babylonians predicted the weather from cloud patterns as well as astrology.In about 350 BCE, Aristotle described weather patterns in Meteorologica. Loan Deferrals In U.S. Auto Loan ABS Reach Their Lowest Levels Since COVID-19 Began; Deeper Dive Into Charge-Offs On Extended Loans, April 27, 2021, Amy S Martin, New York, + 1 (212) 438 2538, amy.martin@spglobal.com, 121. Investors' reset of risk-return expectations could see financial and real asset repricing, debt servicing costs rise, and funding accessibility dry up. South African insurers have demonstrated resilient creditworthiness based on their strong capital metrics, despite a weak operating environment and the ongoing pandemic. No sharing of passwords/user IDs and no simultaneous access via the same password/user ID is permitted. States must focus on long-term structural budget balance to preserve credit quality once federal aid tapers off. With fiscal support firmly in place during 2021, European developed sovereigns' commercial borrowing will remain high, albeit somewhat down versus 2020 given lower anticipated net short-term borrowing and the U.K.'s subsiding issuance after last year's peak. S&P Global Ratings' value as a relative indicator of default risk is reflected in market pricing, which shows increased costs associated with lower ratings. Geopolitical tensions with China persist, despite a new U.S. administration. Risk of Turbulence at 6000ft - This is the in cloud turbulence forecast for FL55 which is what most private aircraft cruise at. Regional GDP increased a moderate 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, matching last month’s preliminary reading and marking a slowdown from the fourth quarter’s 2.0% expansion. The Metcheck 7 Day Forecast takes the best from the GFS weather models and displays it in easy to read maps for the UK out to the next 192 hours ahead. These factors are supporting EMs' external demand and industrial activity. Over the past 10 years, spreads on 'BBB-' rated debt have averaged 264 basis points (bps). The two largest film exhibitors' -- AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. and Cineworld Group PLC -- capital structures became unsustainable, mostly due to high leverage and lease expenses, and they both executed distressed exchanges to maintain liquidity. They may also be spread over a few years. The good news is that most of the factors that lead to a stronger contraction in 2020 will play in favor of higher U.K. growth rates during the recovery that is now under way. European Corporate Support Schemes: Extending And Amending, April 30, 2021, Paul Watters, CFA, London, +44-20-7176-3542, paul.watters@spglobal.com, 19. We are cautiously optimistic that the conditions are supportive for most EMEA economies to show sustained recovery in the second half of 2021. We have a negative bias in rating outlooks, though credit pressure is unevenly distributed. Energy: China's renewable energy targets for 2021-2030 are less ambitious than expected but still imply at least 66 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity versus a record 120GW added in 2020. Unless the tariffs alter the overall savings and investment behavior of an economy, they are not driving the current account dynamics. Rating actions reflect stabilization across the sector. The office rental sector in the Asia-Pacific region can likely weather pandemic-triggered changes. We also revised 2020 growth upward. A more severe scenario, with lasting vacancies, deeper discounts on lease renewals, and a 10% asset devaluation would likely lead us to review most of our ratings. 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