The most recent official forecasts, presented in the OBR's Supplementary forecast (13 March 2020) were made before the full effects of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic were apparent. Or is it more likely that you have got it wrong? He said getting the UK's debt share back down to around 75% of GDP would require tax rises or spending cuts of about £60bn in today's money every decade for the next 50 years. Here we begin to describe the impact of COVID-19 on the public finances and the implications on the data presented in this release. Borrowing for April was revised down by £13.6bn to £48.5bn. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on borrowing, with the £62.1 billion borrowed in April 2020 being the highest in any month on record (records began January 1993). Tax receipts and National Insurance Contributions for the financial year ending March 2020 have been reduced by £6.6 billion and £2.0 billion respectively, compared with those published in our previous bulletin (published 23 April 2020). All rights reserved. These forecasts are usually produced twice a year, in spring and autumn. I will add a balancing one…. Pensions in the public sector finances: a methodological guide outlines both the theory and practice behind our calculation of pension scheme estimates. Our article Recent and upcoming changes to public sector finance statistics: April 2020 explains our provisional assessments of some of the largest COVID-19 schemes. First published on Fri 19 Jun 2020 03.58 EDT. However, borrowing in the latest full financial year (April 2019 to March 2020) was £62.7 billion, £22.5 billion more than in the previous financial year, largely due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in March. Borrowing in the latest full financial year (April 2019 to March 2020) is estimated to have been £62.7 billion, £22.5 billion more than in the previous financial year; these are not final figures and will be revised over the coming months as we replace our initial estimates with provisional and then final outturn data, and as more information on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic becomes available. The OBR's central projection assumes a slower recovery than the watchdog outlined in April, with a coronavirus vaccine found in about a year. In April 2020, central government receipts fell by £16.4 billion compared with April 2019 to £45.6 billion, including £29.6 billion in tax revenue. This month the estimates of GDP used to present these ratios have been updated. This error is limited to the text only and does not affect any statistics presented in the release. Surge in UK Debt-To-GDP Ratio Driven by Fall in Output: OBR By Reuters , Wire Service Content May 22, 2020 By Reuters , Wire Service Content May 22, 2020, at 8:32 a.m. We stated that central government current expenditure increased by 38.3% in April 2020 when compared with April 2019. Current and capital transfers between these sectors and central government are based on administrative data supplied by HM Treasury. This local government surplus partially reflects the increase in current transfers from central government to fund its COVID-19 measures. This means that, for example, VAT receipts on a national accounts (accrued) basis in April depend on forecast cash receipts for May, June and July. It is the gross amount of government liabilities reduced by the amount of equity and financial derivatives held by the government. This is now by far the most important tool available to the Bank of England to influence the […]. The observed revisions reflect the uncertainty of the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on future cash tax receipts and further revisions are likely. In turn, this made future downward revisions to revenues and upward revisions to borrowing more likely. You are trying to sidestep the question, answering something I didn’t ask. We have updated our presentation of debt to reflect the provisional treatment of the COVID Corporate Finance Facility Fund (CCFF) for the first time, CCFF has no impact on the headline public sector net debt measures; this provisional treatment of CCFF may be revised once official statistical guidance has been published. We have increased our previous estimate (published 23 April 2020) of local government borrowing in the financial year ending March 2020 by £0.6 billion due to a reduction in the estimate of grants received from central government. Since our first estimate of borrowing for the full financial year ending March 2020 (published 23 April 2020), we have revised borrowing up by £14.0 billion, largely due to reductions in the previous estimate of taxes and the additional expenditure associated with the Coronavirus Job Retention scheme in March 2020. Whilst governments can theoretically borrow without limit and engage in QE without limit, nobody is suggesting that this is without consequence. We The Treasury’s independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, said GDP and overall tax receipts had performed “a little less badly than assumed”. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is expected to have a significant impact on the UK public sector finances. The Whole of Government Accounts make that clear. Italy’s debt is expected to rise to 158% of GDP this year, while France’s debt to GDP ratio is expected to hit 115% from just under 100% last year. This month HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) have replaced tax forecast data which previously aligned to information published in the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) Supplementary forecast published on 13 March 2020 with data published in their Coronavirus Reference Scenario published 14 May 2020. This is not the latest release. This has a particular impact where individuals or businesses make tax payments in arrears – at the end of a financial year, for example.
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